I BET: OBAMA WINS!
|My prediction on Sept. 9, 2012|
This was my prediction on September 9, 2012. I believe this has a good chance of coming true, IF BARRACK OBAMA WINS FLORIDA.
But the most realistic prediction I have now is 303 electoral votes (EVs) for Obama and 235 EVs for Romney.
The last national polls conducted by many pollsters, show OBAMA ON A RAZOR-THIN ADVANTAGE.
The last pollings at the most swinging states of Ohio, Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire give it all for Obama except for Florida that stays stubbornly for Romney.
The reality however remains that Romney needs to win all of these four (OH, VA,, FL & NH) to win. It is highly improbable at this moment, unless the surveys turn bad.
But the possibility of errors in the surveys is still there so that Romney is still expected to pull off a shocker to win.
I saw two patterns.
1) All polls have been giving small consistent upward move for Obama, from negative daily findings to either a lead of "+3" or "+1" for Obama or "0" or "-1."
2) The second pattern I saw is the pro-Romney pollsters whose daily results early on are too improbable to be believed in are now going back to stick too close with all other surveys.
Rasmussen Reports that is pro-Romney went to as far as "+4" lead for Romney but its final survey result is a dead heat, "0" for both Romney and Obama.
Gallup that went to as far as "+5" for Romney for long days now submitted its final result as "+1" for Romney.
Despite these patters, I am confident that Obama will win more because of the most respected firm, PEW Research, which turned in its final result as "+3" for Obama after releasing results that even showed Obama below at "-3."
Also, other survey firms have been consistently giving edge for Obama and still remain + for Obama in their final results.